Chris's Official World Cup Guide Update

Chris' Official World Cup Guide Update

Hopefully you took my advice and have been rooting for some teams in the World Cup. Now, if you are like my family, you are probably complaining about the lack of scoring in the first round games. Let me explain what is going on. I believe there are three causes for the lack of goals (Portugal's 7-0 dismantling of North Korea being the exception):

1. The Ball. I am sure that you heard about the players whining about the ball before the competition even began. Every World Cup has it's own special ball, and the players always hate it, and like you, I thought that they were all just being babies and making excuses just in case they sucked during the competition. But now, after having watched 29 of the 32 matches (yes, really I have no life) the ball is making a difference. It had dimples on it like a golf ball, which, imagine that, makes it fly farther. Beki and I have talked about this frequently (I love the fact that because I am so into the World Cup, and she works in a lab full of Brazillians who are into the World Cup, my wife can talk about the Cup like a sportscaster) and she thinks that since they are all using the same ball it is fair, plus they have had weeks to practice with the thing, so it shouldn't be an excuse. While I totally agree, I also think that if you have kicked a ball the same way for 13 years, and it has always gone the same difference, if now you kick it and it goes 20 yards further, it is going to be hard to be consistent.

2. No one wants to loose their first game. Because you only play 3 games, and have to be in the top two in your group, you do not want to loose your first game. Getting the 1 point for the draw (the soccer term for a tie) gives you more options in advancing from your next two matches. In the first round of games (16 games) there were 6 draws, and 6 1-0 games, with 25 total goals being scored. In the second round of games there have been 4 draws and 3 1-0 games, with 42 goals scored.

3. Parity in the World. With the real globalization of the sport, teams outside of the traditional powers have gotten much better. In the United State's group for example, everyone keeps underestimating Slovenia. They are a good team, and they have been showing it. Switzerland beat Spain, New Zealand drew with Italy, Mexico kicked the crap out of France, Serbia beat Germany, the US drew with England, etc...

With one round of games left to be played, almost every team still has a chance of making it to the next round, so there should be some excitement in the games ahead. In each group the final games are played simultaneously to ensure that no funny business happens, so either get two tv's or log onto espn3.com. The important games happen at 10am on Wednesday, when the US takes on Algeria, and England take on Slovenia, so you should watch. To help you enjoy the last first round games, I will now give you a little group by group breakdown:

(A note about goal differential. If teams end tied on points, the first tie breaker is goal differential. Take your goals scored, subtract the goals you've let in, and you get your goal differential. The higher the better. If goal differential is the same it goes to number of goals scored.)

Group A

Uruguay - 4 points (+3gd)

Mexico - 4 points (+2 gd)

France - 1 point (-2 gd)

South Africa - 1 point (-3gd)

Uruguay vs. Mexico - If this game ends in a draw, both teams will go through to the next round. If not, the winner is through, and the loser has to see what happens in the other game.

France vs. South Africa - I love France, they always provide good comic relief. As is normal for them, France is apparently trying to surrender at the World Cup. Their star striker got into a fight with their coach, and so the coach sent him home. The rest of the team rebelled and refused to train, the personnel manager quit along with the conditioning coach. Good times!! Both of these teams can make it through if they win big, and Mexico and Uruguay don't draw.

My Prediction: Uruguay and Mexico (Although I am personally hoping for a South African Miracle so Mexico and France both go home!)

Group B

Argentina - 6 points (+4 gd)

South Korea - 3 points (-1gd)

Greece - 3 points (-1gd)

Nigeria - 0 points (-2gd)

Argentina vs. Greece - Argentina need a draw to go through to the next round. Greece need a win, or a draw and Nigeria beating South Korea.

Nigeria vs. South Korea - Nigeria needs two win by 2, and have Argentina beat Greece. South Korea can get through almost guaranteed with a win, or a tie with a Greece loss to Argentina.

My Prediction: Argentina and South Korea (But since I root against South Korea I would like to see Nigeria beat them and go through.)

Group C

Slovenia - 4 points (+1 gd)

USA - 2 points (0 gd)

England - 2 points (0 gd)

Algeria - 1 point (-1 gd)

USA vs. Algeria - This has become the group of crap. We can whine all we want about the ref not giving us the goal that would have won the game against Slovenia, but that isn't going to change anything, and beside, maybe we shouldn't go behind by 2 goals in the first place, can we try that please? Anyway...We win and we are in. We Tie and England tie, we are in, but let's just win. If Algeria beat us (DO NOT GO TO SLEEP ON THE ALGERIANS, THEY DEFEND LIKE MAD, BUT ALL IT TAKES IS ONE COUNTER ATTACK AND WE ARE SCREWED. PLEASE DON'T SCREW THIS UP LIKE YOU ALWAYS DO USA!!) and England does not win, they will be through.

England vs. Slovenia - England are in a ridiculous amount of trouble. Slovenia are good, and right now England are not. I have no idea what happened to the England that won 9 of their 10 qualifying matches. Their path to the 2nd round is simple, they have to win. Slovenia just need a tie or the US not to win.

My Prediction: I have been going back and forth on this, my heart wants USA and England, but the part of me that has watched the games says USA and Slovenia. (The cynical part of me says Slovenia and Algeria.) Lets put my heart out there so it can get broken: USA and England.

Group D

Ghana - 4 points (1gd)

Germany - 3 points (3gd)

Serbia - 3 points (0gd)

Australia - 1 point (-4gd)

Ghana vs. Germany - Each team is through with a win, and Ghana is through with a draw. If they draw, Germany will be through unless Serbia beat Australia, or Australia beat Serbia by 7 goals.

Serbia vs. Australia - If Serbia win they are though. If they draw and Germany lose or Ghana loose by 2, they are through. If Australia win and Germany lose, they are through. If they win big, and Germany beat Ghana big, they might be through.

My Prediction: Ghana and Serbia. (I hope I wrong, but I think Germany blew their chance when they lost to Serbia.)

Group E

Netherlands - 6 points (+3 gd)

Japan - 3 points (0 gd)

Denmark - 3 points (-1 gd)

Cameroon - 0 points (-2 gd)

Netherlands vs. Cameroon - The Dutch are already in, Cameroon are already out

Japan vs. Denmark - Two teams fighting for 1 spot. Denmark have to win, Japan can go through with a draw.

My Prediction: Netherlands and Japan. (The Japanese get the nod because they can get through with a draw.)

Group F

Paraguay - 4 points (2 gd)

Italy - 2 points (0 gd)

New Zealand - 2 points (0 gd)

Slovakia - 1 point (-2 gd)

Italy vs. Slovakia - This group is in the same situation as Group C. Italy is through with a win, or a draw if New Zealand fail to win. Slovakia need a win and New Zealand not to win.

Paraguay vs. New Zealand - New Zealand have to win to go through. Paraguay need only a draw.

My Prediction: I want to pull for the Kiwis, but I can't - Paraguay and Italy.

Group G

Brazil - 6 points (3 gd)

Portugal - 4 points (7 gd)

Ivory Coast - 1 point (-2 gd)

North Korea - 0 points (-8 gd)

Brazil vs. Portugal - One of the marquee match-ups going in to the World Cup, this game will mean almost nothing. Brazil are already through to the 2nd round, and Portugal have showed why goal differential is important. Even if they loose to Brazil, the have 9 goals that the Ivory Coast have to make up.

Ivory Coast vs. North Korea - The North Koreans are out, and the Ivorians need a lot of goals. This could get ugly. The Ivory Coast also needs Brazil to lay some serious smack down on Portugal, which just doesn't seem likely.

My Prediction: Brazil and Portugal

Group H

Chile - 6 points (2 gd)

Spain - 3 points (1gd)

Switzerland - 3 points (0 gd)

Honduras - 0 points (-3 gd)

Chile vs. Spain - Chile are in with a draw, Spain needs to equal whatever result Switzerland gets against Honduras.

Switzerland vs. Honduras - The Swiss have a good chance, since they are playing the weakest team in the group. A win by 2 would put them through, or they can draw and hope that Chile beat Spain. Honduras can get through if they beat the Swiss by 3 and Spain loses.

My Prediction: Spain and Chile.